Kring Noord KNGMG: lezing januari
KNGMG kring Noord lezing heeft als onderwerp:
“The Future of Oil and Gas Production – Scenarios”. De lezing wordt gepresenteerd door Jilles van den Beukel
De lezingen zullen voorlopig online worden gegeven van 17:00 tot 18:00 uur. Via deze Microsoft Teams Link kunt u deelnemen vanaf 16:30 uur.
In 2030 the Netherlands will still be a natural gas country. A natural gas import country to be more exact. Whilst the production of natural gas in the Netherlands is now rapidly declining, natural gas consumption is expected to be near constant until 2030. In Belgium and Germany natural gas demand is increasing due to a coal and nuclear phase out in their power systems.
The decline of the natural gas production in the Netherlands is not just due to the stop of production in the Groningen field. Small field production is also rapidly declining. This is related to several developments: geological (finding new fields in the existing predominant Rotliegend play is becoming more difficult), international developments (the battle for market share between Russian gas and LNG is pushing down gas prices in Europe) and a relatively poor investment climate (lengthy procedures and high taxes).
Dutch natural gas is now being replaced by LNG and Russian gas. In 2019, both the European import of Russian gas (230 bcm) and LNG (90 bcm) reached a record level. The carbon footprint of this imported gas is on average about 30% higher than that of Dutch gas, due to methane leakage and the energy required to transport gas over large distances. Political support to stimulate natural gas production from small fields is limited, however.
In the longer term, preferably by 2050, our country will have converged to a carbon neutral energy system. The basic element of this energy system will not be a fossil fuel but electricity from renewable sources (solar and wind). Heating and transport will, at least in part, electrify.
There will be a number of applications, such as shipping and aviation over large distances or industrial high- temperature heat, that cannot be electrified and require an energy carrier that has a high energy density and that can be easily stored. In addition, intermittent electricity sources like solar and wind require a back-up system. Here gas will play an important role. The question is: what kind of gas? Will this be green hydrogen, blue hydrogen, biogas or natural gas with CCS? Will hydrogen primarily be made locally or will it be imported? Will there be an international market for hydrogen, similar to the current one for LNG?
About the speaker:
Jilles van den Beukel studied geophysics at Utrecht University and obtained his PhD in 1989. He worked for Shell at various locations in the Netherlands, the US and Gabon in research, exploration and development. As a principal geoscientist he was responsible for Toucan subsurface development (Gabon), Dutch offshore drilling campaigns (NAM) and, before leaving Shell in 2015, Denmark exploration.
Since 2015 he works as an energy analyst. He writes articles on energy and the energy transition for IEX, Energeia (the energy news service of the FD) and research institutes such as HCSS (the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies) and OIES (Oxford Institute of Energy Studies).
Recent papers on gas in the Netherlands: